Democrats Speechless Over Latest Prediction

Joe Biden: Gage Skidmore from Peoria, AZ, United States of America (source: Joe Biden); User:TDKR Chicago 101 (clipping)Donald Trump: Shealah Craighead (source: White House)Сombination: krassotkin, CC BY-SA 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

( – On Wednesday, in his first presidential election forecast, Nate Silver, polling and data expert, revealed he favored former President Donald Trump to win the White House.

In his “Silver Bulletin” substack, Silver, who previously ran the polling analysis website FiveThirtyEight, wrote that he “honest-to-God” believed Trump has a “better chance” at winning in November, although he would rather “have [Biden] win.”

In his forecast model, which runs 40,000 simulations, Silver discovered Trump had a 65.7 percent chance of winning the electoral college, nearly double President Joe Biden’s 33.7 percent chance to emerge victor.

Biden is predicted to win the popular vote, which Trump lost in 2016, but still clinched the Presidency as he had won several key swing states.

Silver explained that his forecast model weighted “reliable polls more heavily,” and adjusted for factors like if available polling data is “conducted among registered or likely voters,” if Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy is present or absent, and “house effects.”

However, Silver expressed optimism that Biden could turn things around by giving his Presidential nomination to Vice President Kamala Harris or another Democrat at the Democratic National Convention. He stated that although Biden wasn’t “that far behind,” the race between the President and Trump “isn’t a toss-up.”

Silver gained his reputation as a polling expert in 2012, when he accurately picked the winner for every, confidently forecasting that Barack Obama would win over Mitt Romney.

In 2016, he was bullish on Hillary Clinton but cautioned his — primarily Democratic base — Trump’s chances of winning were reasonable.

In 2020, on the eve of the Presidential election, FiveThirtyEight’s model gave Biden a 90 percent chance of clinching victory.

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