Surprising Twists in Montana’s Senate Face-Off: Tester’s New Challenge

October 2, 2024

The Montana Senate race between Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy is shaping up to be one of the most pivotal contests in the 2024 elections.

At a Glance

Tim Sheehy acknowledged making “insensitive” remarks about Native Americans but has refused to apologize.
Jon Tester leads among younger voters, while Sheehy commands a significant lead among older voters.
The outcome of this race could determine which party controls the U.S. Senate.
Both candidates have significant fundraising and polling advantages in different demographics.

A Pivotal Senate Race

The U.S. Senate race in Montana places Democratic Senator Jon Tester against Republican challenger Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL. The stakes are high as Tester seeks to defend his seat and Sheehy aims to capitalize on key conservative issues such as economic stability and border security. According to a recent poll by Montana’s AARP, Sheehy leads among voters over 50, while Tester is more popular among younger voters and women.

Tim Sheehy has been criticized for remarks he made about Native Americans, which he acknowledged as “insensitive.” Despite calls for an apology, Sheehy deflected by shifting the focus onto immigration issues, a strategy that seems aimed at galvanizing the conservative base. This controversy has nonetheless highlighted the growing tensions in the race, with both candidates striving to win over moderate Republicans and Independents.

Montana US Senate debate underway: https://t.co/xdQFc281LQ #mtsen

— Greg Giroux (@greggiroux) October 1, 2024

Key Issues and Controversies

The debate between Tester and Sheehy illuminated several contentious points. Tester supports reinstating Roe v. Wade, while Sheehy opposes abortion. Sheehy also criticized Tester’s ties to lobbyists and his stance on immigration, while Tester has distanced himself from some Democratic positions, including Biden’s policies on immigration and pollution rules for coal plants. Social Security and Medicare are crucial issues, especially for older voters, with Sheehy holding a significant lead among this demographic.

“Both candidates running for Senate are extremely well defined with more than 9-in-10 holding an opinion of both,” the report said.

Tester has long relied on his bipartisan approach and grassroots connections with Montana residents. This strategy aims to capture the vote of Independents and Trump’s base. Meanwhile, Sheehy aligns himself with former President Trump, a move likely meant to consolidate the conservative electorate. Former President Trump won Montana by 17 points in the 2020 election, making his endorsement highly influential.

Sen. Jon Tester and Republican challenger Tim Sheehy squared off in Montana’s first Senate debate on Sunday — an early showdown in one of the most important races to determine control of the Senate next year. https://t.co/m0xlQM992j

— NBC News (@NBCNews) June 10, 2024

Fundraising and Polls

The financial dynamics of the campaign are notable, with Tester having raised about $43 million compared to Sheehy’s nearly $14 million. Despite this fundraising gap, Sheehy leads in polls by 3.7 points according to FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate. Furthermore, 70% of voters think the country is headed in the wrong direction, an opinion likely to benefit Sheehy, who staunchly opposes the Biden administration’s policies.

“We don’t often see that kind of support,” said polling expert Seiji Carpenter of David Binder Research. “Usually, if numbers poll at 80%, it’s a sure thing, so to see property tax at 95%. But 74% support Medicaid expansion and that even includes two-thirds of Republicans.”

The race in Montana is critical for Senate control, with Republicans needing to gain just two seats to claim a majority. Both candidates are pouring significant resources into winning over swing voters, who make up 25% of Montana’s electorate. Of these voters, 60% cite economic issues as their primary concern. This focus on personal economic stability could ultimately tip the scales in Sheehy’s favor.