Egg prices have skyrocketed by 36.8% as avian flu devastates U.S. poultry flocks, while chicken meat costs remain surprisingly stable due to fundamental differences in how these products reach American tables.
Quick Takes
- Grade A large eggs have jumped from $2.52 to $4.15 per dozen, with wholesale prices reaching as high as $8.07 nationally
- Over 19.63 million birds across 29 states have been infected with avian flu and required culling
- The 2022 outbreak resulted in the loss of 39% of the laying hen flock, severely impacting egg production
- Chicken meat prices have remained stable due to differences in production methods, location, and faster replacement cycles
- The USDA plans to spend up to $1 billion to enhance farm biosecurity and compensate affected farmers
Avian Flu Delivers Major Blow to Egg Production
The H5N1 avian influenza outbreak has dealt a severe blow to America’s egg supply, driving prices to record levels across the country. The price of Grade A large eggs increased by 36.8%, from $2.52 to $4.15 per dozen, with national wholesale prices reaching an average of $8.07 per dozen. Some regions have seen prices approach nearly $10 per dozen, placing significant strain on household budgets. Statistics reveal that egg prices rose by 53% between January 2024 and January 2025, making eggs one of the fastest-rising food items in an already challenging inflationary environment.
The devastating 2022 outbreak resulted in the loss of approximately 147.25 million birds, with about 39% of the nation’s egg-laying flock lost to the disease or necessary culling measures. This massive reduction in laying hens continues to have ripple effects throughout the egg production system, as replacing these birds is not a quick process. It takes a minimum of 4.5 months for a young hen to mature and begin laying eggs, creating a significant lag between flock repopulation efforts and increased egg availability in stores.
Why Chicken Meat Prices Remain Stable
While egg prices continue to climb dramatically, chicken meat prices have remained relatively stable, creating a puzzling contrast for consumers. This difference stems from several key factors in how these products are produced and brought to market. Broiler farms, which raise chickens specifically for meat production, have been less affected by the H5N1 outbreak due to differences in farming practices, geographic location, and the inherent nature of meat production cycles. The broiler industry also benefits from a much faster turnover rate, with birds reaching market weight in just 6-7 weeks.
The broiler chicken industry is predominantly located in the Southeast United States, where warmer climate conditions make the spread of avian influenza less likely. In contrast, egg production is more widely distributed across regions that have experienced higher rates of infection. Additionally, the sheer scale of the broiler industry provides more resilience against localized outbreaks. While the egg industry faces significant challenges in replacing lost laying hens due to their longer maturation period, the broiler industry can quickly ramp up production to fill gaps created by any losses, maintaining supply stability.
The FRED Blog compares chicken meat and egg prices since 2022 to discuss the differences between price inflation, disinflation and deflation https://t.co/sznIdsy54B pic.twitter.com/4SH5zz240Y
— St. Louis Fed (@stlouisfed) February 8, 2024
Government Response and Market Outlook
In response to the crisis, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced plans to spend up to $1 billion to enhance farm biosecurity measures and provide compensation to farmers affected by the avian influenza outbreak. However, these measures are unlikely to provide immediate relief for consumers facing high egg prices. The federal government has limited ability to lower egg costs in the short term as the fundamental issues of flock reduction and the time required to rebuild laying hen populations cannot be quickly addressed through policy interventions.
Looking ahead, food inflation overall is forecasted at 2.2% for the coming year, but egg prices specifically are expected to rise significantly more. With persistent consumer demand and the approaching Easter holiday season, which typically sees increased egg consumption, prices are projected to increase by more than 20% this year. Weather and climate challenges between 2022 and 2024 have further complicated egg production, creating additional hurdles for the industry’s recovery efforts. The situation highlights the complex interplay of factors in food production and the lasting impact of disease outbreaks on agricultural systems.
